The OBR

The OBR was definitely a good idea. Preventing Chancellors from making up optimistic growth figures by using independent financial forecasts sounds great. But is the OBR really independent?

It doesn't have its own premises and operates inside the Treasury machine - when its members are part of the Chancellor's Treasury machine, its difficult to see how they can remain independent.

Perhaps the killer blow to the OBR's credibility is the fact that Cameron knew unemployment predictions before everyone else. Indeed, the OBR was kind enough to bring forward the publication of those statistics to help him out of a tough spot at PMQs. "New Politics" my arse.

It doesn't help that the OBR's chair, Alan Budd, has just quit amid rumours not being allowed the independence he was promised. Of course Osborne claims that he was always on a three-month contract: he just conveniently forgot to mention it in any of the Treasury's press releases. "New Politics" my arse.

Given the above, its difficult to see how the OBR's optimistic growth and inflation predictions are at all credible. It's also difficult to see how the OBR could survive a Labour government without serious reform.

Of course, even if the OBR is fefashioned into a truly independent and credible body, it still needs politicians to respect its findings instead of trying to ignore and spin unfavourable figures. Margaret Thatcher set-up the British Crime Survey to do the same thing for policing: provide credible independent figures that can't be fiddled by politicians. That didn't stop Chris Grayling trying to spin crime figures to claim something that was patently untrue, and judging by PMQs today it didn't stop Cameron making the completely unfounded claim that violent crime has doubled. Actually, it's fallen enormously - whether you use the BCS or any other independent measure, but that doesn't stop the spin.

Bloody politicians...